Prophecies in SCRUM

Estimating in Scrum:

As one of the agile software development methodologies, Scrum manages projects with a focus on flexibility, collaboration and rapid delivery. Scrum teams focus on producing functional product parts within a specific time frame (usually two to four weeks). The successful completion of these product parts determines the progress of the project and therefore the estimating process plays a critical role.

The Place of Estimation in Scrum

Scrum uses estimating in both of its main areas:

1. Sprint Planning: At the beginning of each Sprint (work period), the team collaborates and estimates how much work they can complete. This estimate helps determine sprint goals and workload.

2. Backlog Estimates: Work items in the Product Backlog (list of project requirements) are rated with estimates. This rating is based on factors such as the Product Owner's priorities and project duration, and determines which work items will be carried over to the next Sprint.

Forecasting Methods

Scrum teams can use different methods to perform estimating:

• Conversational Estimation (Expert Judgment): Team members make estimates of work items based on their own knowledge and experience. This method is useful for making quick predictions.

• Timeboxing: Team members schedule to estimate how long it will take them to complete a particular job. For example, they may decide that a work item is a 3-day job.

• Velocity: The team calculates how much work it has completed in previous Sprints and uses this velocity for future forecasts. For example, if 30 work categories were completed in the last three Sprints, approximately that amount of work is expected to be completed in the next Sprint.

• Planned vs. Actual: The team updates its estimates by comparing previous estimates and actual work. This is used as a way to continually improve the forecasting process.

Forecasting Challenges

Although estimating plays an important role within Scrum, it can face some challenges:

• Uncertainty: Uncertainties always exist in the software development process. This means predictions can be misleading.

• Changing Requirements: The Customer or Product Owner may make changes to the requirements during the project. This may affect the estimates.

• Team Dynamics: Team members' experience and collaboration skills can affect the accuracy of forecasts.

In Scrum, the estimating process is a critical element that affects project progress and resource allocation. Accurate estimates are used to support project management and decisions. The team strives to meet these challenges by focusing on opportunities to continually improve the forecasting process.